Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. . | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Detailed Map of Powell The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. //-->, Printable Version Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? 15 Day Weather Forecast By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. Much of that water. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. //2006-10-04: news Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. google_ad_height = 600; google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; %%EOF Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. google_color_link = "0000FF"; Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. google_ad_height = 600; In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. %PDF-1.7 % According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. Flight Center. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. SW Satellite Weather The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. Climate change also plays a part. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Water managers, who . Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H 04:12 - Source: CNN In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. It can store about five times the average annual flow. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future His freelance Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. We are 37% through the Water Year. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. google_color_text = "000000"; google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet As the forecast season progresses, In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. This level is actually .02 feet . The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. hbbd``b`$WX)! U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. By Leia Larsen. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. google_color_url = "426C95"; Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. This is the big warning bell.. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST.
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